by Derek Six | June 3, 2025
Updates for the period ending May 31, 2025
| .CCO 8s-Non-DEBs | Bid 12.30 | Ask 12.40 |
| .CCO 8s-DEBs | Bid 24.60 | Ask 24.70 |
CCO 8s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 8 years during which they may be invalidated.
| .CCO 3s- Non-DEBs | Bid 12.40 | Bid 12.50 |
| .CCO 3s- DEBs | Bid 24.70 | Bid 24.80 |
CCO 3s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 3 years during which they may be invalidated. The reduction to 3 years is achieved by having a different verifier successfully verify the project the following year.
| .CA Compliance Allowances | Bid 25.94 | Ask 25.96 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total emissions. Prices shown are for the front-month futures contract.
| .CA Floor Price 2025 | 25.87 |
The minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2025.
| .Estimated CA floor price 2026 | 27.81 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total (the minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2026 increases by 5% annually plus CPI-U).
(Bid/Ask Prices are taken from multiple broker quotes for the period ended May 31, 2025. The 2025 CA Floor Price is the regulatory minimum auction price for allowances. The 2026 estimate is based on regulatory rules and ClimeCo’s assumption of inflation in 2025 as measured by the CPI-U index. Green numbers indicate positive changes during the month, red numbers indicate negative changes during the month, and black numbers are unchanged.)
Offset Supply Information:
All CCOs issued to date: 274.04 million
CA and General Market Commentary:
- Prices for CA Allowances continued to trade near the 2025 auction floor price. On May 29, the CA Air Resources Board announced the results for the May quarterly allowances auction. The auction was under-subscribed (failed to sell all of the offered allowances) for the first time since 2020 during COVID. The auction settled at the floor price of $25.87.
- It would appear that the threat of litigation from the Trump Administration has cooled interest in holding CA compliance instruments until the extent/likelihood of the threat to the Cap-and-Trade program becomes more clear.
- The CA legislature has begun discussion of a potential extension of the Cap-and-Trade Program post-2030, and the Governor’s office appears to be supportive of a relatively clean extension bill.
- No progress has been announced publicly by the CA Air Resources Board on the expected Cap-and-Trade regulatory amendments.
- Issuances of CCOs in May totaled 451,652. We are watching the issuance trends as compared to the same period in previous years to gauge the future available supply of DEBs and Non-DEBs offsets. Since 2021, issuances have generally been on a downward trajectory, but a single large forestry project issuance in February, 2025 of 3.6M credits has skewed the data substantially:
| .Year | Total Issuances YTD |
| .2021 | 6,801,874 |
| .2022 | 6,096,815 |
| .2023 | 4,694,679 |
| .2024 | 4,425,859 |
| 2025 | 6,288,591 |
ClimeCo is an award-winning leader in decarbonization, empowering global organizations with customized sustainability pathways. Our team of respected scientists and industry experts collaborates with companies, governments, and capital markets to develop tailored ESG and decarbonization solutions. Recognized for creating high-quality, impactful projects, ClimeCo is committed to helping clients achieve their goals, maximize environmental assets, and enhance their brand. Partner with ClimeCo to drive meaningful environmental change and take your climate initiatives to new heights.
Contact us at +1 484.415.0501, info@climeco.com, or through our website climeco.com.
