by Derek Six | March 6, 2025
Updates for the period ending February 28, 2025
| .CCO 8s-Non-DEBs | Bid 13.40 | Ask 13.50 |
| .CCO 8s-DEBs | Bid 26.30 | Ask 26.40 |
CCO 8s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 8 years during which they may be invalidated.
| .CCO 3s- Non-DEBs | Bid 13.50 | Bid 13.60 |
| .CCO 3s- DEBs | Bid 26.40 | Bid 26.50 |
CCO 3s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 3 years during which they may be invalidated. The reduction to 3 years is achieved by having a different verifier successfully verify the project the following year.
| .CA Compliance Allowances | Bid 30.64 | Ask 30.66 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total emissions. Prices shown are for the front-month futures contract.
| .CA Floor Price 2025 | 25.87 |
The minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2025.
| .Estimated CA floor price 2026 | 27.84 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total (the minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2026 increases by 5% annually plus CPI-U).
(Bid/Ask Prices are taken from multiple broker quotes for the period ended February 28, 2025. The 2025 CA Floor Price is the regulatory minimum auction price for allowances. The 2026 estimate is based on regulatory rules and ClimeCo’s assumption of inflation in 2025 as measured by the CPI-U index. Green numbers indicate positive changes during the month, red numbers indicate negative changes during the month, and black numbers are unchanged.)
Offset Supply Information:
All CCOs issued to date: 272.65 million
CA and General Market Commentary:
- ARB held the first quarterly allowances auction of 2025 in February. Current vintage allowances cleared at $29.27. The bid-to-cover ratio was a strong 1.74. Allowances prices climbed following the results and continued to climb into the end of the month, but this price movement might have more to do with the expectations that the program will be extended and revised. The CA legislature has filed two bills for this year’s session that would extend the program beyond 2030, and ARB is expected to release more information about adjustments to the Cap-and-Trade program shortly.
- Issuances of CCOs in February totaled 4,234,404 with the bulk of the new issuances, 3.6M, registered to one forestry project. We are watching the issuance trends as compared to the same period in previous years to gauge the future available supply of DEBs and Non-DEBs offsets. Since 2021, issuances have generally been on a downward trajectory, but the large forestry project registered this month skews the data considerably:
| .Year | Total Issuances YTD |
| .2021 | 4,295,204 |
| .2022 | 1,258,784 |
| .2023 | 1,429,204 |
| .2024 | 793,750 |
| 2025 | 4,899,905 |
ClimeCo is an award-winning leader in decarbonization, empowering global organizations with customized sustainability pathways. Our team of respected scientists and industry experts collaborates with companies, governments, and capital markets to develop tailored ESG and decarbonization solutions. Recognized for creating high-quality, impactful projects, ClimeCo is committed to helping clients achieve their goals, maximize environmental assets, and enhance their brand. Partner with ClimeCo to drive meaningful environmental change and take your climate initiatives to new heights.
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