by Derek Six | October 6, 2025
Updates for the period ending September 30, 2025
| .CCO 8s-Non-DEBs | Bid 12.55 | Ask 12.65 |
| .CCO 8s-DEBs | Bid 24.90 | Ask 25.00 |
CCO 8s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 8 years during which they may be invalidated.
| .CCO 3s- Non-DEBs | Bid 12.65 | Bid 12.75 |
| .CCO 3s- DEBs | Bid 25.00 | Bid 25.10 |
CCO 3s are ARB-issued offsets available for spot delivery and subject to 3 years during which they may be invalidated. The reduction to 3 years is achieved by having a different verifier successfully verify the project the following year.
| .CA Compliance Allowances | Bid 30.80 | Ask 30.90 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total emissions. Prices shown are for the front-month futures contract.
| .CA Floor Price 2025 | 25.87 |
The minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2025.
| .Estimated CA floor price 2026 | 27.90 |
Allowances are the permits entities purchase to emit in CA. Entities can substitute offsets for up to 4% of their total (the minimum price at which entities can purchase allowances in 2026 increases by 5% annually plus CPI-U).
(Bid/Ask Prices are taken from multiple broker quotes for the period ended September 30, 2025. The 2025 CA Floor Price is the regulatory minimum auction price for allowances. The 2026 estimate is based on regulatory rules and ClimeCo’s assumption of inflation in 2025 as measured by the CPI-U index. Green numbers indicate positive changes during the month, red numbers indicate negative changes during the month, and black numbers are unchanged.)
Offset Supply Information:
All CCOs issued to date: 278.87 million
CA and General Market Commentary:
- CA passed legislation to rename its program as the Cap-and-Invest program and to extend it through 2045.
- The legislation provides for the use of up to 6% offsets to satisfy each entity’s compliance obligations from 2026-2045 and retains the requirement that no more than half of the offsets used can be Non-DEBs.
- One substantial change the new legislation makes is that for each offset surrendered by an entity, CARB will be required to retire an allowance from the following year’s allowance pool. Some observers describe this approach as offsets being “under the cap”. While it eliminates the overall programmatic cost-savings the offsets could provide, it should not impact the value of offsets to compliance buyers.
- Issuances of CCOs in September totaled 2,087,762. We are watching the issuance trends as compared to the same period in previous years to gauge the future available supply of DEBs and Non-DEBs offsets. Since 2021, issuances have generally been on a downward trajectory, but a single large forestry project issuance in February 2025 of 3.6M credits has skewed the data substantially:
| .Year | Total Issuances YTD |
| .2021 | 11,180,388 |
| .2022 | 9,352,681 |
| .2023 | 10,082,177 |
| .2024 | 8,052,815 |
| 2025 | 11,126,351 |
ClimeCo is an award-winning leader in decarbonization, empowering global organizations with customized sustainability pathways. Our team of respected scientists and industry experts collaborates with companies, governments, and capital markets to develop tailored ESG and decarbonization solutions. Recognized for creating high-quality, impactful projects, ClimeCo is committed to helping clients achieve their goals, maximize environmental assets, and enhance their brand. Partner with ClimeCo to drive meaningful environmental change and take your climate initiatives to new heights.
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