by Clara Merlino | December 17, 2025
When the holidays come around, if your family and friends are like mine, everyone is always eager to know what’s happening in the world of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) – it’s all we talk about.
To prepare you for these very real conversations (or for work again in January), ClimeCo has put together this summary of the top 5 things that happened in the VCM this past year.
1. COP30
Background: The 30th Conference of the Parties was held in November in Belém, Brazil, at the heart of the Amazon basin. Notably, for the first time in 30 years, the U.S. did not send delegates.
Article 6.4: Article 6.4 establishes a global carbon market overseen by the United Nations (UN), where carbon credits are transacted through a centralized mechanism – the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). PACM was established last year at COP29, and it was determined that it would replace the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which had a history of shortcomings. At COP30, the deadline to transition projects from CDM to PACM was extended by 6 months to June 30, 2026. COP30 also saw the approval of PACM’s first methodology – AMM001 for landfill gas projects – signaling that landfill gas products will be the first to transition from CDM to PACM. While the extension delays the retirement of the CDM infrastructure and prolongs uncertainty for corporate buyers, it gives time for government and market actors time to be fully prepared for the transition.
Overall, Article 6.4 is advancing on operational readiness and is moving from the design to the implementation phase, slowly but surely unlocking new market routes for voluntary carbon credits.
Super Pollutants: Super pollutants are a group of high-impact greenhouse gases that have a disproportionately strong warming effect compared to CO2, and at COP30, they received increased attention. Notably, the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator was launched – a multi-year program to help governments embed national action on super pollutant mitigation across sectors. The Accelerator aims to engage up to 30 countries by 2030 and mobilize an estimated USD $150M in grant funding and finance from development partners.
As an organization that has been helping to abate the super pollutant nitrous oxide (N2O) since 2009, ClimeCo is excited to see the increased focus on pollutants that have such outsized effects on climate.
2. SBTi
Background: November was busy as the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) also released its latest draft of the revised Corporate Net-Zero Standard (CNZS). The CNZS is a globally recognized framework that guides companies in setting and achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions targets in alignment with climate science. V1 of the standard was officially released in 2021, and V2 is in the works. V2 draft 1 was released in March 2025, and V2 draft 2 was released this past November for public consultation.
Major Updates:
- Unbundled Environmental Attribute Certificates (EACs) are being considered as recognized way to reduce Scope 3 emissions. EACs are used to track and claim ownership of environmental decarbonization.
- The latest draft proposes that companies can purchase the EAC separately – or “unbundled” – from the product associated with decarbonization and count the reduction toward their Scope 3 goals, provided the product is proven to be in the company’s supply chain.
- This is exciting for hard-to-abate industries where it is often difficult for the product to travel with the EAC due to regional differences in Willingness to Pay (WTP), among other challenges.
- The use of carbon offsets will be acknowledged by a Recognition Program. Previously, offsets were framed only as a recommendation by SBTi, but the new guidance provides the strongest support yet for climate action beyond the value chain.
- Removals will be required starting in 2035. This means that companies are expected to invest in removals projects – i.e., projects that remove carbon from the atmosphere, through solutions like tree planting or direct air capture – to address the impact of their ongoing emissions. We therefore expect to see increased investment in this already fast-paced and dynamic space in the coming years.
For more in-depth information by our SBTi-Certified Experts, read ClimeCo’s blogs covering everything companies need to know about the recent draft, or how the changes affect the construction industry.
These updates from SBTi are a critical development for cohesive climate action, as the number of companies with SBTi-validated climate targets has tripled since 2023, reaching nearly 11,000. [1] SBTi’s standard globally affects how corporates choose to purchase offsets, select partners, and invest in decarbonization. ClimeCo will be closely monitoring updates, with the final version expected in early 2026.
3. Buyer Trends
Background: Entities looking to invest in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reductions in the VCM may have a variety of preferences for the projects they choose, including integrity, location, vintage, co-benefits, and more.
Buyer Trends We Have Seen in 2025:
- Buyers increasingly want assurance of quality in the form of labels and ratings from agencies such as BeZero and Sylvera. Credits with the Core Carbon Principles (CCP) label have maintained value, while credits without this label have seen their prices decline.
- Buyers are looking to invest in GHG reductions that occur within their value chain. For example, a company that uses plastic in their products would be interested in purchasing carbon credits related to plastic manufacturing, processing or transportation.
- Buyers want to be part of the climate project investment story earlier. They want to show that their participation made the difference in the project’s success, and that they want to lock in long-term supply at a known price.
- Despite the U.S. administration’s anti-climate agenda, organizations are still focused on sustainability, they’re just talking about it differently. This strategy, sometimes referred to as greenhushing, aims to allow continued action while avoiding potential negative backlash.
Generally, organizations remain focused on Environmental, Social, & Governance (ESG) and are moving towards high-integrity projects early that align with their offerings and climate objectives.
4. The Rise of Data Centers
Background: In 2025 we saw massive investment, development, and demand for data centers due to a booming AI industry. Data centers have significant impacts on climate and the environment due to high electricity demand, carbon footprints in building materials, water use, and a general strain on local resources.
Data Centers in the VCM: Due to data centers’ impact on climate and considerable public scrutiny, tech giants are investing heavily in mitigation. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Stripe are among the largest corporate participants shaping the modern VCM. Investments tend to be focused on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) projects due to their high integrity, alignment with SBTi (removals will be required to offset residual emissions starting in 2035). This Microsoft deal to purchase 3.6 million CDR credits over 12 years, is just one example of a growing number of similar transactions. Beyond CDR, these players are also focused on reducing emissions within their value chains through insetting.
Data centers are long-term investments, and tech giants are investing early to reduce their environmental impact and meet climate goals.
5. CORSIA
Background: The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), was established in 2016. CORSIA is a global offsetting scheme where airlines and other aircraft operators offset any growth in CO2 emissions above 85% of 2019 levels. Participation is currently voluntary, with the compulsory phase beginning in 2027.
SAF: In a review conducted by ICAO this year, it was found that use of CORSIA-eligible fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) can mitigate 6-10% of an operator’s emissions. This meaningfully reduces offsetting requirements of an operator and reduces the need to purchase carbon credits, driving up demand. However, SAF is not yet being produced at the volumes required to support mass adoption, making purchases by airlines difficult and costly. Simultaneously, ICAO also tightened the criteria for what qualifies as a CORSIA-eligible fuel.
Carbon Credits: SAF is not the only area where there are supply concerns within CORSIA. To be used for CORSIA compliance, carbon credits must be authorized by host countries by way of a Letter of Authorization (LoA), and the pace of country authorization is lagging demand. Due to this and other regulatory hurdles, CORSIA-eligible credits are in short supply, and we expect prices to rise significantly as the compliance true-up deadline for the First Phase approaches (January 31, 2028).
CORSIA is one of the largest sources of potential carbon credits demand that we are tracking. However, there is growing scrutiny on credit and SAF supply availability, and therefore on market robustness to meet CORSIA requirements. Due to these concerns, ICAO has institutionalized regular tracking of supply and demand for Corsia-eligible fuels and emissions units.
Looking Ahead
As we turn the corner into 2025, ClimeCo will be paying close attention to these developments and more. We will especially be monitoring the UN’s progress against the 2025 goals that were set in Baku and potential SBTi updates regarding the use of credits for Scope 3 reductions. As an experienced project developer of over 15 years, we are committed to generating credits with high standards of quality. We hope the new changes in this ever-evolving market will uphold all parties and countries to the same standard and allow the VCM to live up to its full potential.
As 2026 quickly approaches, we see value chain investments, CDR, and high-integrity projects generally as places buyers will want to put their dollars. At the same time, Article 6.4, SBTi, and CORSIA will influence the shape of the Voluntary Carbon market that the buyers are operating within. As an experienced project developer and advisor in the VCM for over 16 years, ClimeCo will be keeping a close eye on these developments. Good luck with your dinner conversations. See you next year!
Sources & Works Cited
[1] Companies with climate targets have more than tripled since 2023: SBTi
About the Author
Clara Merlino is Manager of Industrial Innovations at ClimeCo, specializing in hard-to-abate sectors such as cement and nitric acid production. She designs tailored project portfolios and industry-specific diligence strategies to meet partner needs. Previously, Clara worked as a program manager and strategic consultant for Fortune 100 companies. She brings expertise in research, strategy, and stakeholder collaboration to her role.
